|
|
|
Communities - Timed for
Investment |
 |
We know
that
there are approximate 77 million Baby Boomers are about begin life as retirees
over the next few decades. And despite the often touted recent “national” housing
downturn, we know that nothing is going to stop the largest migration in US history.
We also know that almost all the research and reports agree that the Southeast,
and in particular, Florida,
North Carolina and South Carolina,
will be the dominant boomer destinations, now, and in the foreseeable future.
We also know that buying quality residential properties now, at historically low
prices, is one of the best investments one could make. Predictably, as these new
retirees flock to resort communities and college towns and pursue their passion
for ownership of second homes, the like, the demand for quality residential properties
will grow, prices will surely follow suit and investors will profit.
We also know the recent housing downturn is really a regional phenomenon and that
all locals have not been affected the same. For instance: |
- Some parts of the country destined
by the Baby Boomers have been remained largely unaffected by the housing downturn.
Typically, these areas did not enjoy “incredibly” high appreciation rates as some
other locals did a few short years ago. However, these areas have time and again
maintained a level of growth and residential properties have consistently appreciated,
although modestly. Many of the towns and cities in
North Carolina and South Carolina
are characteristic of these conditions.
|
- Other parts of the country, which
had previously enjoyed very high housing appreciation rates have not fared as well
and are more characteristic of the often touted “housing downturn”. Here housing
prices grew dramatically from 2001 to the latter part of 2005, only to see housing
prices plummet over the past few years. Many parts of
Florida are characteristic of these conditions.
|
So what does all this
mean from a personal investor perspective? For instance, given that the Southeast
US is quite large and the choices are almost endless, how does one decide on where
to invest to profit most from the Baby Boomer migration?
We feel that first and foremost a decision should be made based on your particular
comfort level of investment, which could include your personal preferences such
as your personal knowledge of the type of property (single family home, condo, building lot or home site, etc.) as well as and the possibility of future personal use plans
you may have. It may be that you are quite comfortable in comparing condos, given
your personal experience. Or you may have plans to rent the investment property
initially and reserve it for personal use some time in the future, possibly upon
retirement.
We believe that once your decision based on personal property type preferences is
reached, as with all investments, the investor should address other factors such
as those based your personal tolerance for risk, especially given and historic housing
data of the local. It is here is where the investor can choose between being a momentum
investor and contrarian investor.
So what are momentum and contrarian
investing and investors?
Technically, momentum investing is an investment strategy that aims to capitalize
on the continuance of existing trends in the market. The momentum investor believes
that increases in the price of an investment will be followed by additional gains
and vice versa for declining values. In practice, momentum investors invest with
the trend, once the trend has been established. Hence, because they by definition
did not get in on the ground floor, their overall profit may be assured, but will
be limited.
Contrarian investing is the direct opposite of momentum investing, as it is a strategy
that aims to capitalize in opposition to the prevailing wisdom of existing trends
in the market. A contrarian investor is one who attempts to profit by investing
in a manner that differs from the conventional wisdom, when the consensus opinion
appears to be wrong. A true contrarian buys when everybody else is selling and sells
when everybody else is buying. If a contrarian is right in picking the bottom or
at least some where close, the profit can be considerable.
Based on your personal risk tolerance, in general, we believe our momentum investors
should be positioned in North Carolina
and South Carolina. Here the momentum
is established and for the foreseeable future trend will continue to provide at
minimum modest, yet predictable residential real estate appreciation.
On the other side, we recommend that our contrarian investors be positioned in
Florida. We believe that given the meteoric
rise and fall of housing prices Florida offers a unique investment opportunity,
especially Southwest Florida where price
swings were the most dramatic and a market we know best. If history has shown us
time and again that real estate rebounds and Florida
is no different. |
|
|
|