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Communities - Timed for Investment
We know that there are approximate 77 million Baby Boomers are about begin life as retirees over the next few decades. And despite the often touted recent “national” housing downturn, we know that nothing is going to stop the largest migration in US history.

We also know that almost all the research and reports agree that the Southeast, and in particular, Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina, will be the dominant boomer destinations, now, and in the foreseeable future.

We also know that buying quality residential properties now, at historically low prices, is one of the best investments one could make. Predictably, as these new retirees flock to resort communities and college towns and pursue their passion for ownership of second homes, the like, the demand for quality residential properties will grow, prices will surely follow suit and investors will profit.

We also know the recent housing downturn is really a regional phenomenon and that all locals have not been affected the same. For instance:
  • Some parts of the country destined by the Baby Boomers have been remained largely unaffected by the housing downturn. Typically, these areas did not enjoy “incredibly” high appreciation rates as some other locals did a few short years ago. However, these areas have time and again maintained a level of growth and residential properties have consistently appreciated, although modestly. Many of the towns and cities in North Carolina and South Carolina are characteristic of these conditions.
  • Other parts of the country, which had previously enjoyed very high housing appreciation rates have not fared as well and are more characteristic of the often touted “housing downturn”. Here housing prices grew dramatically from 2001 to the latter part of 2005, only to see housing prices plummet over the past few years. Many parts of Florida are characteristic of these conditions.
So what does all this mean from a personal investor perspective? For instance, given that the Southeast US is quite large and the choices are almost endless, how does one decide on where to invest to profit most from the Baby Boomer migration?

We feel that first and foremost a decision should be made based on your particular comfort level of investment, which could include your personal preferences such as your personal knowledge of the type of property (single family home, condo, building lot or home site, etc.) as well as and the possibility of future personal use plans you may have. It may be that you are quite comfortable in comparing condos, given your personal experience. Or you may have plans to rent the investment property initially and reserve it for personal use some time in the future, possibly upon retirement.

We believe that once your decision based on personal property type preferences is reached, as with all investments, the investor should address other factors such as those based your personal tolerance for risk, especially given and historic housing data of the local. It is here is where the investor can choose between being a momentum investor and contrarian investor.


So what are momentum and contrarian investing and investors?

Technically, momentum investing is an investment strategy that aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. The momentum investor believes that increases in the price of an investment will be followed by additional gains and vice versa for declining values. In practice, momentum investors invest with the trend, once the trend has been established. Hence, because they by definition did not get in on the ground floor, their overall profit may be assured, but will be limited.

Contrarian investing is the direct opposite of momentum investing, as it is a strategy that aims to capitalize in opposition to the prevailing wisdom of existing trends in the market. A contrarian investor is one who attempts to profit by investing in a manner that differs from the conventional wisdom, when the consensus opinion appears to be wrong. A true contrarian buys when everybody else is selling and sells when everybody else is buying. If a contrarian is right in picking the bottom or at least some where close, the profit can be considerable.

Based on your personal risk tolerance, in general, we believe our momentum investors should be positioned in North Carolina and South Carolina. Here the momentum is established and for the foreseeable future trend will continue to provide at minimum modest, yet predictable residential real estate appreciation.

On the other side, we recommend that our contrarian investors be positioned in Florida. We believe that given the meteoric rise and fall of housing prices Florida offers a unique investment opportunity, especially Southwest Florida where price swings were the most dramatic and a market we know best. If history has shown us time and again that real estate rebounds and Florida is no different.